Live Streams

MONDAY
7pm Geoffrey Dunstan
9pm Available Slot

TUESDAY
7pm Available Slot
9pm Delroy Henry

WEDNESDAY
6pm Anne Marie Waters
7pm The UK Freedom Alliance
9pm Jeremy Poole

THURSDAY
7pm Sandy Smith
9pm Dave Witcher

FRIDAY
7pm Jacqui Lowry
10pm Red Pill Movie Night

SATURDAY
6:30pm Shaun Morris
9pm Davey Russell

SUNDAY
12pm Katie-Jayne Swallow
5pm Dave Simpson
7pm Alan Merritt
9pm Public Child Protection Wales

(Premium membership required)

UK politics: the opinion poll beckons

By this measure, the Tories should romp home at the general, but New Statesman argues that the right is divided and the Lib-Dem vote is likely to collapse in Tory-Labour marginals.

The “right”, in this context, is taken to include the bulk of UKIP voters and, with the current poll putting its support at 17 percent, the greater effect of the UKIP vote is expected to drag down the Tory vote and open the way for Labour. With displaced Lib-Dem votes going to Labour in greater numbers, one can therefore expect Labour to do better than the modest poll lead indicates.

Another distorting factor is the turnout which, if it follows present trends, should be at an all-time low for the forthcoming local elections, and possibly also for the general. And recent observations suggest that low turnout tends to favour those who are best able to organise the postal vote – most often the incumbent.

Despite the uncertainties, though, the media still has difficulty in widening out the elections beyond the two party (plus one) system, thus like The Sunday Times reporting in terms of wins for the establishment parties.

This paper thus has details of an analysis carried out Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University, suggesting that Labour will gain 350 council seats, while the Tories will lose 310 and the Liberal Democrats 130. Nevertheless, they concede that, with UKIP in the field, this is the “most unpredictable local contests for years”.

The Sunday Telegraph, on the other hand, goes for a more lurid projection, suggesting that the Tories could lose as many as 600 of the two thousand-plus seats up for grabs. It takes the Sunday Mirror to talk up the role of UKIP, retailing fears that many of the Tory votes will go to UKIP, putting the overall losses at 500 seats.

A guessing game on the number of seats won or lost, however, seems to be the extent of the media sophistication. One can understand, therefore, why the Italian Five Star Movement is moving towards the idea of direct democracy, restricting the powers of elected representatives.

Until something more fundamental such as this is on the agenda, the elections will increasingly become an empty numbers game – and one that attracts less and less interest and excitement. Even the politicians, it seems, are having difficulty drumming up enthusiasm, and if they can’t get worked up, it is unlikely that the rest of the population will follow.

COMMENT THREAD

0 Comments

Get involved!

Get Connected!
Come and join the conscious community and get to know new people!

Comments

No comments yet

Upgrade to Premium Membership

For just £3 a month you can upgrade to Premium Membership. You’ll get access to our daily live streams and the archive of previous live streams. The cost of providing this social network is 100% funded by the Premium membership fees we receive.

Standard members click here to upgrade to premium membership

Show your support

The monthly cost of providing this social network is 100% funded by the community that use it. Please consider an affordable donation to show your support.

Donate

Latest Community Photos

Latest Community Media

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This